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(6-21AM10:00)第494期岭南学术论坛(管理学系列Seminar)

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报告题目:Forecasting Demand of New Products: A Hybrid Structural and Data Driven Approach

报 告 人:Tong Wang(National University of Singapore, Associate Professor)

主 持 人:徐佳焱(中山大学岭南学院   助理教授)

时      间:2018年6月21日(周四)上午10:00—11:30

地      点:岭南堂汪道涵会议室

语      言:中文+英文

 

摘要:

We study a new product demand forecasting problem faced by a cosmetic retailer. The retailer’s business strategy requires frequent launching of new products with new functionalities (e.g., facial mask) or new regimes (e.g., Tea Tree Oil). The main challenge is data availability/sparsity: there is no historical data for new products, and it is not obvious how to utilize data about existing products. Pure data-driven approaches in the literature can extrapolate the data about existing products to generate forecast for new products, however, they fail to capture subtle substitution effects between new and old products within or across product categories (in terms of functions and regimes). On the other hand, pure structural models of product substitution requires historical data to calibrate. We propose a hybrid approach that overcomes the disadvantages of both. The approach’s forecast accuracy is back-tested on real dataset.

 

个人简介:  

Tong Wang is an Associate Professor at Department of Analytics & Operations (formerly known as Department of Decision Sciences), National University of Singapore Business School. His research is mostly on data-driven retailing operations and more recently on football analytics. He teaches Business Analytics, Statistical Learning, and Machine Learning for undergraduate, MSc, and PhD programs at NUS. He holds a PhD degree in Decision Sciences from INSEAD, France and Singapore, an MPhil in Systems Engineering and Engineering Management from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a B.Eng in Industrial Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

 

 

 

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       中山大学岭南学术论坛分经济、金融和管理三个系列,是定期邀请国内外优秀学者前来开展学术交流的平台。每系列每个月定期举办2-3次。目前已经成功举办多期,并得到了各界的高度评价。

        论坛主页:http://lingnan.sysu.edu.cn/seminar/

 

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